INFP and CRMD have recently developed a methodology capable of a systemic analysis of the direct and indirect implications of natural hazards on transportation networks. This methodology, named Network-risk, is currently embedded into an ArcGIS toolbox. It had been tested for Bucharest, revealing:
the areas which could become inaccessible for road vehicles, considering the collapse probability of buildings;
the implications of the typical and post-earthquake traffic on emergency intervention times;
which are the safest and direct access routes toward hospitals or fire departments.
Maps showing the Network-risk methodology potential in determining the service areas for hospitals, post-earthquake (left) and in computing the safe routes toward hospitals and the road areas important to remain functional (right); adapted from Toma-Danila et al, 2022
Characteristics
the methodology provides advanced capabilities for the systemic analysis of direct and indirect implications of natural hazards on transportation networks, being able to also consider time-dependence. Network-risk combines:
transportation network characteristics;
information regarding structural damage but also socio-economic losses;
models for determining the probability of transportation links to be affected;
information regarding traffic or flow;
capacities of intervention.
the methodology was integrated in the Network-risk toolbox which runs under ArcGIS Desktop Advanced (10.2+) with the Network Analyst extension; for computing travel times, it relies on the Dijkstra algorithm.
both the Network-risk toolbox and sample data for Bucharest can be downloaded free of charge, along with a highly useful user manual. The toolbox can be modified according to your purposes, being distributed in the hope that it will prove useful to other persons, although without any warranty. Even though it was developed with the best intentions and proved to be useful in our studies, both Network-risk toolbox developers or INCDFP and CRMD are declining any responsibility in case of any damage (direct, indirect, accidental etc.) resulting from the misuse of the toolbox and its reference documents.
the methodology and the toolbox have been successfully tested for Bucharest (Toma-Danila 2018; Toma-Danila et al., 2020; 2022), for multiple earthquake scenarios, being however easy applicable to other case study areas, at:
different types of natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, floods etc.), including multi-hazard analysis;
odifferent types of transportation networks (roads, railways, electric networks, gas or water distribution networks etc.);
different spatial levels of analysis (local, regional, national).
Graphical representation of the Network-risk methodology (modified after Toma-Danila et al., 2022)
Brief presentation of Network-risk during the 2nd Consortium Meeting of TURNkey (June 16, 2021)
Assistance in emergency intervention management in case of natural disasters and contribution to risk models and business continuity plans, allowing the:
identification of limited access areas in case of natural disasters and direct and indirect implications of loss of connectivity;
evaluation and planning of emergency resource distribution and facilities (such as hospitals, mobile hospitals, rescue containers, fire stations, number of ambulances or firetrucks etc.);
identification of vital network segments and important detour routes;
identification of optimal routes for various types of vechiles;
estimation of economic losses resulted from an increased travel time.
elaborating natural hazard scenarios and mitigating the risks, providing support in the elaboration of emergency response plans.
Network-risk has contributed until now to:
the SEISM 2019 earthquake drill table-top exercise;
the Analysis and Risk Prevention Plan (PAAR) of Bucharest (2022);
raising awareness regarding the high risk in Bucharest due to road network dysfunctionalities in case of an earthquake, through the „Seismic risk of Bucharest” app.
Map showing qualitative values for the combined final index of vulnerable road network accessibility (Vf) for Bucharest (Toma-Danila et al., 2020)
Areas which could become inaccessible by road in case of the collapse of buildings in seismic risk class I and II or in urgency categories in Bucharest (modified after Toma-Danila et al., 2022)
Fastest routes for eight representative OD pairs for Bucharest, for the FT directions, and for the typical traffic scenario on Monday (a) at 02:00 LT and (b) 18:00 LT (Toma-Danila et al., 2020)
For a detailed offer and collaboration proposals, contact us at: toma[_at_]infp.ro or +40214050670
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